Mosler Economics

Continues to decelerate from the tariffs, and this is before the virus: Also decelerating before the virus: Before the virus, the downtrend is obvious as it remains below 50: Exports and imports both slowing as global trade continues to wind down: GDP forecast to decelerate, before the virus: Unsold inventory piling up: Gone negative well before the virus:

The decline continues, and this was well before the coronavirus: Rolling over: The charts show the economy has been continuously decelerating from the time the tariffs took effect, and now with the coronavirus it’s likely to decelerate that much more quickly into negative growth. The private sector tends to be pro cyclical, which is why back in 2009 it took a federal deficit of maybe 10% of GDP to turn things around, and why it is likely it will take same to turn things...

New home sales continue to grow at a slower pace than prior cycles, with absolute levels remaining historically depressed. The chart is not population adjusted: Can also be a reflection of what’s going on in China: Another one of those recent moves up that is now likely to reverse:

Back below 0 but could still be trending higher: From the quarterly report. Historically depressed and recently fading:

Settling in near 0 after the fall: Settling in near 0 after the fall: Negative growth since August:

This one is for the lion’s share of the US economy and it’s fallen back: Same with manufacturing: Also fell back some and in general remains depressed and going nowhere: Kudlow says market is wrong… ;) Looks like the President’s mental capabilities are rapidly deteriorating:

The Philadelphia Fed’s survey just gapped up, much like some of the others. Could be that manufacturing has stabilized at current levels, but too soon to say: White House Admits That Trump Trade Stance Did Depress Economy

Reversed some but still higher than expected, and still historically depressed: However, the weather was very nice again in January (just like in December), and the weather probably had a significant impact on the seasonally adjusted housing starts number. The winter months of December and January have the largest seasonal factors, so nice weather can really have an impact. A huge driver of stock prices got off to its worst start in 7 years, but that could change Share...

Another move up that may or may not reverse: Walmart earnings and outlook fall short as holiday season disappoints This price drop will negatively effect capital expenditures as well as the value of oil being produced, both negatives for GDP:

Largely unchanged for over a year now: Historically depressed, and adjusted for inflation and population growth real estate lending growth isn’t much above 0: This much credit tightening has historically been followed by recession: Still no candidates showing an understanding of monetary operations, so it’s not a distinction :( Bloomberg unveils plans for Americans’ Social Security, retirement savings