Mosler Economics

Tariffs doing their thing to the US economy: Highlights A jump in utility output couldn’t save industrial production in July which, pressured by contraction in both manufacturing and also mining, came in near the low end of Econoday’s consensus range with a 0.2 percent decline. Utilities, where production is affected by the weather and where results are often volatile, jumped 3.1 percent in the month following a 3.3 percent June decline. Outside of this component, however,...

German Economy Contracts in Q2 as Exports Fall Germany’s gross domestic product contracted by a seasonally-adjusted 0.1 percent on quarter in the three months to June 2019, following a 0.4 percent expansion in the previous period and matching market expectations, a preliminary estimate showed. Net external demand contributed negatively to the GDP, mainly due to a slump in exports, while fixed capital formation in construction also declined. China Industrial Output: Growth...

You can’t make this stuff up… So the problem is Americans might not buy Chinese products? Trump says he delayed tariffs because of concerns over Christmas shopping season

China Vehicle Sales Fall for 13th Month Vehicles sales in China decreased 4.3 percent from a year earlier in July 2019, the 13th consecutive month of decline, as the economy slows further amid the trade spat with the US. Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) tumbled 4.7 percent to 80,000 units, the first yearly drop in more two years, following China’s move to cut NEV subsidies last month. Interesting how the chart shows the belief trade policy would help increased for a bit...

Peaked a few years ago and trending lower: BEA: July Vehicles Sales decreased to 16.8 Million SAAR The BEA released their estimate of July vehicle sales on Tuesday. The BEA estimated sales of 16.82 million SAAR in July 2019 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 1.8% from the June sales rate, and down slightly from July 2018. Sales in 2019 are averaging 16.9 million (average of seasonally adjusted rate), down 1.5% compared to the same period in 2018. Automakers trim...

Rail Week Ending 03 August 2019: July Down 6.1% Oil related capex never recovered to prior levels and is now in decline: Down some more:

Bankruptcy-related job losses invoke grim reminders of Great Recession In the first seven months of the year, U.S.-based companies announced 42,937 job cuts due to bankruptcy, up 40% from the same period last year and nearly 20% higher than all bankruptcy-related job losses last year, a report released Tuesday concluded. Despite record-low unemployment, bankruptcy filings have not claimed this many jobs since the Great Recession.“It is the highest seven-month total since...

Deep into global industrial contraction: Not that rate cuts are expansionary, of course, but that they think they are. As the barber quipped, ‘no matter how much I cut off, it’s still too short’ : Central Banks Across Asia Cut Interest Rates The Reserve Bank of India cut its benchmark repo rate for a fourth straight meeting by a deeper-than-expected 35bps to 5.4%; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashed its official cash rate/OCR by a larger-than-expected 50bps to a fresh...

Openings have rolled over and hires gone flat. Neither are population adjusted so it’s worse than it looks here: New export orders now below 2016 collapse: All these statements are entirely false, of course, but interesting how the ’45 year’ statement repeats- seems somehow he’s ‘connecting’ it to him being the 45th President? [embedded content]

US service sector continues its rapid deceleration: Seems about the same everywhere- imports and exports both down: Canada’s trade surplus decreased to CAD 0.14 billion in June 2019 from a downwardly revised CAD 0.56 billion in the previous month and against market expectations of a CAD 0.3 billion gap. It was the third trade surplus since December 2016, as exports were down 5.1 percent, while imports fell at a softer 4.3 percent, both due in part to significant decreases...